British newspaper headlines after Brexit: "We quit"
Phoenix Financial News (Reporter Yi Dian) on June 24, changed the day of the British National Games. In the 48-hour free throw-in referendum broadcast, Phoenix Finance witnessed the “depression†of the British constituency, and the British unexpectedly fell to the end of the Brexit. The financial market took the "roller coaster" and the pound plunged 10% overnight. Then, Cameron stepped down, the female prime minister took the stage, reorganized the cabinet, and negotiated to leave the European Union.
A month later, on July 23, the head of the British economy began to sit down with senior EU officials to talk about leaving the country. The so-called: "I don't know the true face of the mountain, only in this mountain." The meeting was not in Brussels, not in Paris, not in Frankfurt, but in Chengdu, China, far from the Brexit dispute.
From July 23 to July 24, the G20 Third Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting will be held in Chengdu. This is the last ministerial consultation before the G20 Hangzhou Summit in September, and it is also the closing of this year's finance ministers meeting.
The Chengdu meeting occupied “the right place and the right place†and grabbed a few “firstsâ€:
The new "first show" of the new British Chancellor of the Exchequer; the first confrontation between the British and German finance ministers; the first time the international financial heads gathered after the Brexit; the first meeting of the Japanese and US financial leaders after the Japanese stimulus plan was released.. ....
British Brexit "front line" transferred to Chengdu
The Russian deputy finance minister Sergei Stolchak, who was watching the "following lively", could not wait to be revealed to the media three days before the meeting: "British Brexit will be the main topic of the G20 Chengdu meeting." According to Kyodo News, Japan, the United States, Europe and emerging market economies will gather together to explore cooperation to avoid the negative impact of the UK referendum on Brexit. Bloomberg quoted Canadian officials as saying that the G20 communiqué may deal with the Brexit issue, and the G20 will discuss the impact of Brexit on the EU and trade.
British new Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond
In Chengdu, the new British Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond will make his debut internationally and will be the first to face the German finance minister who is known for his toughness.
The British and German finance ministers met with a strong "gunpowder flavor", and the focus of the debate was whether the UK could enter the "EU single market." As the name suggests, a single market means that the EU is like a country where goods, services, people and capital are free to move within.
The new British finance minister publicly "pleased" last week, hoping that the UK financial industry can enter the EU single market.
London is the European financial center, and the free flow of capital is the foundation of finance. Once the capital flow between the EU and the UK is restricted, it can be described as a “sudden salary†for London’s developed financial industry, or it will cause financial institutions to withdraw their European headquarters from the UK. The status of the European financial center in London may be handed over to Paris or Frankfurt.
However, for the British "showing weakness", the German Finance Minister has upheld the strong tradition of Germany - no compromise. He said that rights and obligations should be unified, and that they should not enjoy the privilege of the EU single market while refusing to compromise on immigration issues. Editor's Note: One of the main reasons for the referendum to withdraw from Europe is that the refugee problem will damage the UK and the immigration issue is to leave the European Union. The main differences between the faction and the Europeans.)
The British finance minister "speaks through the air" is very noisy. After a half-month of quarreling, they will finally "small troops in Chengdu", the first time after face-to-face negotiations to withdraw from Europe.
In addition to negotiating with the German Finance Minister, the British Finance Minister's international "first show" also needs to face the financial heads of the world's major economies such as the United States, Japan, China, India, and explain the new Prime Minister's Brexit program.
As a member of the European Union, he wants to explain to the global financial and economics the top boss, "The Thatcher II" (Editor's note: the British media to the British female Prime Minister Teresa Mayi's nickname) on the tough attitude of Brexit. I also want to teach the big guys to do a reading comprehension question. The topic is: "How do I understand what she said? "Brexit is a Brexit, will there be no second referendum?"
On the second day of the Brexit referendum, the UK petition website has collected more than 1 million signatures, and over one million people have requested a second referendum.
Of course, we don't have to worry about the British finance minister. Although he has just served as the British Chancellor of the Exchequer, he has served as Minister of Transport, Minister of National Defense, Minister of Foreign Affairs and diplomacy in the past three years.
When British Prime Minister Theresa May visited Germany, she held a press conference with Merkel.
As for whether the Brexit negotiations in the UK will make significant progress in Chengdu? Not optimistic. When the new British Prime Minister visited Germany, he made it clear that the UK will not open a formal Brexit negotiations this year. What are the outcomes of negotiations that are uncertain in time?
Perhaps the British Finance Minister came to Chengdu to distribute the "Retreat Cards", telling the world: Everything is good in the UK, please feel free to do business with the UK! I will talk about the matter of leaving the EU.
The British Finance Minister’s visit to China can be described as “one stone and two birdsâ€: not only to pass the information on leaving the country in Chengdu, but also to arrive in Beijing one day in advance, to “pull relations†with the Chinese government, to stimulate more Chinese investment, and to emphasize that the British market continues to open to Chinese capital. After half a month of Brexit, China used capital to express confidence in the UK. Wanda Group's AMC Cinema announced the acquisition of Europe's largest cinema line, Odeon & UCI Cinema, for £921 million, the first major cross-border M&A after Brexit.
The renminbi "escaped from a robbery"
Shanghai meeting last week, Xiaochuan Lou Jiwei "private chat"
Five months ago, the first G20 finance ministers meeting in February this year was held in Shanghai. It coincided with the unfavorable opening of the year. In January, A shares melted and the shares were double-killed. In February, the global market plummeted. The depreciation of the renminbi has become the target of the public, and the US Treasury Secretary has widely advertised: "China has pledged no plans to let the renminbi depreciate sharply." The G20 Shanghai Communique also reiterated: Avoiding competitive devaluation.
In Chengdu, the country of abundance, everything has changed. Europe is mired in refugee quagmire; Britain has a taste of retreat; France has suffered the 7th terrorist attack in 18 months; Egypt has no defense against a coup; Japan has quickly fallen to rely on "helicopters to throw money"; the United States has watched the most in history. The birth of the "Qi Wei" presidential candidate was unable to stop it.
Only China, and only China, everything looks good. Although the yuan fell below 6.7 against the US dollar, it did not cause capital outflows and market panic. In June, foreign exchange reserves did not fall. Economic data is optimistic: China's GDP growth rate in the second quarter reached 6.7%, better than expected. Even the IMF, which has always been cautious and authoritative, has raised China's economic growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 6.6%.
Reuters bluntly said: "For the host country China, the Chengdu meeting may be less concerned about it than the February G20 meeting." Hong Kong's "South China Morning Post" column ridiculed: "This time Zhou Xiaochuan and Lou Jiwei can finally With a sigh of relief, they no longer have to face the difficult conversations of February. Compared to Shanghai, the Chengdu meeting is much easier."
What is even more rare is that even the reservation issue of "RMB depreciation" will not be discussed in Chengdu. The current round of the yuan fell below 6.7, and did not arouse the international challenge to China's competitive depreciation.
"With the passage of time, the renminbi is fluctuating a little, but I don't think it will be a problem that is currently plaguing G20 policymakers," said Fan Limin, co-director of HSBC's Asian Economic Research. "There seems to be some consensus that China is There is no attempt to actively seek market share through currency depreciation."
The international community’s concerns about the Chinese economy have eased. Reuters quoted a European official who participated in the G20: "We will also discuss China, but most G20 countries believe that China will be able to manage a soft landing."
Of course, at the international conference of the G20, China will always encounter several "pits." This time, we can't use the yuan to "pit" China, and the United States is trying to switch to the "excess capacity" pit. At the 8th China-US Strategic Forum in May this year, China and the United States had a fierce confrontation on the issue of excess capacity. According to Reuters, US Treasury Secretary Jacques Bloo is expected to urge the G20 to play a leading role in addressing the pressing problems of global industrial overcapacity.
Zhang Yongjun, an expert at the China International Economic Exchange Center, said that China also has its own demands on the United States. China may ask the United States to better guide market expectations when making monetary policy decisions. Its policy actions should not only consider its own economic situation, but also consider the global economic situation.
Translated into popular language: the Fed does not want to raise interest rates alone, even if you want to raise interest rates, you should also inform us, give a signal, don't make a sudden attack!
As for whether the Fed is in contact, perhaps Zhou Xiaochuan and Yellen will talk about conditions in Chengdu. Yellen came to Shanghai in February, whether this will be heard in Chengdu, let us wait and see.
Japan suffers: because of the "intervention rate"
Japanese Finance Minister Aso attended the Shanghai G20 Finance Ministers Meeting
At the International Finance and Economic Conference, China’s most frequently accused is to intervene in the exchange rate and manipulate the market.
This time, the renminbi survived and escaped. And Japan has repeated the fate of China, because the "intervention rate" has been pointed out by thousands of people.
After winning the Senate election, Abe will introduce a fiscal stimulus plan totaling 20 trillion yen to boost the economy. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke went to Japan to discuss the possibility of "helicopter money" (Editor's Note: The Japanese government issued unlisted perpetual bonds, which were purchased directly by the Bank of Japan).
Such a generous fiscal stimulus plan, coupled with the central bank’s “money-spending planâ€, has caused a large wave of “intervention of the exchange rate and manipulation of the marketâ€.
Even the "big brother" of Japan - the United States can't sit still. Earlier this year, the relationship between Japan and the United States had a gap due to currency problems. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso warned that the yen is rising too fast. However, the US Treasury Secretary Lu believes that the fluctuation of the yen is normal. The market has reported that the United States has already warned Japan’s intervention in the exchange rate.
Reuters quoted sources as saying that Japan actively lobbyed the parties before the G20 meeting: It is hoped that the 20 countries will jointly adopt fiscal stimulus measures to help intervene in the appreciation of the yen. However, the lobbying was not effective . At the Shanghai meeting in February, the G20 financial head had promised to avoid manipulating the exchange rate. Japanese officials were instead reminded: "Please do not overly control the exchange rate."
Will Japan be accused of “intervention of the exchange rate� This depends on the results of the Japan-US Treasury Secretary. On Saturday morning before the G20 Chengdu meeting, Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso and US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lulu will meet, in addition to talking about the impact of the Brexit, or will talk about the appreciation of the yen.
The G20 meeting seems to be a combination of vertical and horizontal, and the undercurrent is soaring. Actually, one sentence can be broken: the British and German are short-lived, and Japan and the United States are in a gap, and China is sitting on a mountain. Perhaps this is also the significance of holding the G20 meeting in Chengdu: after pulling the ribs, eating a hot pot and playing a mahjong, the world is still peaceful.
I heard that after the Shanghai conference, Ogawa made an invitation to the Yelen, Lagarde, and Lu Ministers to taste the Shanghai Nightingale. Perhaps the people are more interested than the deep financial conferences: This week, Zhou Xiaochuan is ready to treat guests? (Author / Yi Dian)
Chengdu features: Jiugongge hot pot
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