Faced with the current price trend of cotton, the market also appears to be divided. Some people think that the reason why domestic cotton has risen has a certain relationship with the rhythm of the State Reserve Cotton Reserve. By the end of May, 300,000 tons of imported cotton had been put into operation. Since June, the state reserve cotton has all been domestically produced cotton. The transaction volume and transaction price of State Reserve Cotton have also shown some fluctuations, but the transaction volume is still at a high level.
"Now there is a shortage of domestic stock, especially high-quality cotton in the limited amount of reluctant to sell the cash flow is limited, the short-term terminal continue to focus on purchasing the country's cotton, although the traditional off-season, but the high cost and limited cash resources also support the spot is difficult to fall. As of June 21, 2015/2016, the cumulative plan for reserve cotton was released to 92.55 million tons, and the accumulated inventory turnover was 90.02 million tons, with a transaction rate of 97.27%, said Zheng Bo, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information Technology.
From the perspective of participating in the auction structure, traders’ bidding enthusiasm is gradually warming up. Currently, market circulation resources are mostly in the hands of traders. Traders provide textile companies with credits, advance funds, delivery and transportation, and textile companies maintain normality. Delivery of goods, but the lack of cost-effective advantages, structural problems, slow delivery and other issues still exist, some textile companies are still in the "no rice ham" situation, which also makes part of the spinning companies instead of purchasing cotton or cotton over the port.
Another hot spot that the market is paying attention to recently is cotton planting area and recent weather. In recent days, the high temperature and hail in Xinjiang have affected the yields, and market funds have taken the opportunity to speculate, but the reduction in the output caused by the weather is expected to be relatively limited, and the output will not exceed 400,000 tons. The stockpiling began on March 1, 2017, 50,000 tons/day, and 400,000 tons is thrown reserves in about 8 days. If the current production reduction takes into account the new year's stockpiling, it will not affect the supply and demand pattern of the new year. In the new year, the overall supply and demand pattern remains bearish. Therefore, the price of the weather caused by hype is very limited.
In this regard, the new lake futures analyst Gao Guoying expressed disagreement, for the current main contract cotton prices should be dynamic to see, first of all, the September contract price under the speculation of warehouse receipts and other topics, the price increase is greater. While the spot market in Shandong mainstream to the factory price 12600-12800 yuan, while the 1609 contract price is about 13,500 yuan, the September warehouse receipt is still the old warehouse receipt price, and the January contract as the new annual contract represents the new cotton price, that is to say in January relative to September is underestimated and prices need to be adjusted.
With the end of the import of imported cotton resources, the transaction volume and transaction price of the State Reserve Cotton have begun to fluctuate. Analysts pointed out that in September before the listing of new cotton, in the tight market supply pattern, the State Reserve Cotton is still the main force to make up for the market supply gap, the state reserve cotton sales will remain at high levels. Since throwing storage is always the hot spot of the market chase, how much throwing and depositing will directly affect the market supply, causing a large fluctuation in the spot price.
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