Dear leaders, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, and friends from the press, good afternoon! I want to talk about two aspects: first, let me talk about the first half of the industry, and give you some information on the economic situation of the industry and the basic situation in 2016. Then it is to take the new growth momentum and do some preliminary analysis here.
We have not yet mastered the data for the whole year of 2016, because there is only data from January to November, but the above is basically clear. The basic feature is the new normal . Just now, Yao said that although the overall operation of our industry has not experienced ups and downs, it has slowed down, stabilized or slowed down. However, there have been some progress in the slowdown, and we are still undergoing structural adjustments and making innovations. So there is progress.
We have encountered some difficulties in the process of entering, and it is difficult to enter the middle, and there are still some difficulties, so we have to speed up the adjustment. This task is very arduous. This is my first evaluation.
Below I think I use some data to say a few things:
First of all, from the aspect of production, from January to November, the growth rate of industrial added value of textile enterprises above designated size is 5.2%, which is lower than that of the whole country and lower than that of industry. One reason this year, raw material prices really are not high, but prices in particular export prices drop more than, but we still do not have much reduced cost. The speed of new value and added value is somewhat slow.
The output of large-scale products increased by 6.2%, an increase of 1.4%, and a year-on-year increase. This may be related to the second half of this year. We know that after the previous period of cotton stock price fluctuations, but the production of yarn in the latter stage has increased, but the growth rate of chemical fiber is falling, the growth rate of cloth production is also falling. Moreover, clothing production experienced a negative growth, which was -1.4 (%) from January to November. Because the clothing is in direct contact with the terminal market, its response is particularly sensitive, indicating that the garment is being adjusted for production reduction.
The negative growth of clothing will also have an impact on the previous step, because textile is a chain. Production is the case.
Looking at investment again, from January to November, 1.16 trillion, the growth rate was 6.7%. Such a growth level fell 8.3%, and the investment growth rate fell. From the perspective of the region, the investment growth rate of the central region in the eastern region last year was basically the level of industry growth, almost the same, and some slightly fell back. However, in the western region, the growth rate of investment last year was particularly conspicuous, with a year-on-year increase of 19%. Among them, Xinjiang’s fixed asset investment increased 1.5 times, accounting for more than 20% of the industry’s investment increase. It can be seen that the hot spot of the industry investment, the biggest hot spot is in Xinjiang.
Everyone may also know that the country is now developing textile and garment industry in Xinjiang to solve employment , with stable national unity, with such a political background, and a large number of policy support. Therefore, many enterprises in the Mainland have invested in it, accelerating the speed of investment in this region.
There is also a piece of clothing, home textiles and industrial use in the three terminal industries. The growth rate of fixed-asset investment in January-November last year was relatively large, both around 20%. This also shows that the terminal industry still lacks confidence in the terminal market, or is in a state of deep adjustment and waiting for expansion opportunities. Although the industry's economic indicators, especially economic efficiency indicators, are higher than the industry-wide level, their fixed-asset investment has fallen more than the industry-wide level.
Exports from January to November last year were 264 billion US dollars, -6.6% growth, a little less than the national negative growth rate. However, the year-on-year negative growth rate was expanded. Here we have negative growth for the growth of the United States, the EU , Japan, and ASEAN, all of which are at the level of 6 (%) and 7 (%). The share of these countries has declined, and the share of the world is still the first. No country can shake. Our own exports are a clear trend.
The sales level of main business from January to November increased by 4.2% to 6.6 trillion yuan, and the profit was 246 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%. The growth rate dropped slightly. But the profit margin of 5.2% is some growth, product turnover, total asset turnover ratio of the two as well as three charges is to speed up the turnover rate, the proportion of three charges are dropped, the quality of the case is a good run.
From this point of view, the overall speed is slowing down, but the operational quality level has improved. There was such a situation last year. There is such a result. There is such a harvest, which reflects that we are accelerating adjustment and deep adjustment. This is probably the case.
Let's talk about 2017, after all, it is down, how to curb the downturn, how to generate the power of hedging, and make the economy develop healthier and more sustainable. From the domestic and international situation, the previous experts have already said a lot. For the international situation, our analysis does not seem to have been the comrades of the National Development and Reform Commission. His analysis is relatively optimistic, and that the developed economies should become the main body of economic growth in 2017. . Developing countries are also in a state of gradual improvement.
We have seen some predictions from international economic organizations, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Their forecasts are slightly better than last year's economic growth, but the predicted values ​​have not reached the level before the financial crisis. Next year, the entire global economy, including trade, is still in a recovery period, or a slow recovery period. This tone should be recognized.
There are also some uncertain factors, just like the Trump of the United States just mentioned, I don’t know how to play it, there is also a rate hike in the US dollar, and there is also a Brexit, etc. It makes us feel that the international economic environment is not loose, and exports are still under pressure.
From the domestic perspective, Mr. Yao Jingyuan said that we feel confident. We learned the central tone of the Central Economic Work Conference, deepened the reform of state-owned enterprises, boosted the real economy, and accelerated the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. All of them will help the entire macro economy to maintain a reasonable range in 2017 and maintain a stable and positive situation. This is a basic situation for our industry. We must seize the good opportunities in the country to upgrade. The key is to explore new ones. Growth momentum.
We are also relative to the so-called new power, not to say that it is brand new. Already in our social and economic life, or in the central decision-making, we have begun to put on the agenda, and some have already begun to implement, but we are doing some induction, doing some emphasis, doing something to make people feel these aspects, maybe We are able to tap into new growth spaces and gain some new sources of growth.
There are roughly several aspects:
First of all, the policy listed three points. The first is the second child of the whole people. This is an adjustment of our country's major population policy. The official release was in October 2015, and the official implementation was on January 1, 2016, and it has been just one year until now. Why should we adjust such a population policy? Mainly for the balanced development of the entire country's population, especially to alleviate the social problems brought about by aging, so our country has adjusted the population policy.
We have to find out that there are opportunities for us. In 2017, the second child will have to cultivate for a certain period of time. In 2017, the population growth rate may have a relatively rapid growth, and the number of newborns will increase. Newborns increase, and consumer goods for infants and young children include clothing and home textiles. I think there will be new opportunities.
The second is the three-product strategy. This is the State Council's measures to specifically propose supply-side reforms for the consumer goods industry. What does it have a background? There is a large amount of overseas consumption every year. At present, the preliminary statistics are 1.5 trillion. A considerable part of this is a product of our industry. We look forward to bringing these overseas consumption back by raising quality, increasing varieties and creating brands, becoming domestic demand and becoming domestic consumption. I think the implementation of this strategy will bring new domestic opportunities. And now the three-product strategy has begun to deepen people's hearts, and our company also very much recognizes such a three-product strategy.
In the third aspect, everyone knows this. This is what the General Secretary said at the Central Economic Work Conference not long ago. It is very popular, but it is a sentence that gives the real estate industry an accurate positioning. Live, not for speculation." To go to this stock, you must first go to leverage and directly relate to financial leverage. But the general goal is to make these houses, to be used to live. If this goal can be achieved, I would like to bring practical demand for home textiles, because people have to buy home textiles and so on. These are some of the sources of motivation for the policy.
Let's take a look at the consumption upgrade. Consumption upgrades This is a problem that our industry needs to pay close attention to because we are the consumer goods industry after all, but our sales include exports, especially domestic demand. From January to November last year, physical retail sales also increased by only 6%, down 3.2%. Generally speaking, in the past, we were 4-6 percentage points higher than the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society. Now, the level of online retail sales below the level of consumer goods retailing is also at a falling level. The decline in market sales growth indicates that on the one hand, there is insufficient purchasing power, and on the other hand, our industry seems to lack consumption hotspots, or consumption hotspots are not in our industry. Therefore, we need to cultivate and explore new consumption hotspots and promote consumption upgrades.
As for the consumption upgrade, I think that several aspects are not accurate.
The first is green. Nowadays, wealthy consumers are paying more and more attention to health, safety, environmental protection , ecology, recycling, and low carbon. These concepts have been integrated into their consciousness, even purchase behavior and consumer behavior, if our Products can meet these needs, and I think it will bring a lot of momentum to our economy.
The second is light luxury. Now that consumers are becoming more and more rational, the era of pursuing big brands seems to have passed, and more attention should be paid to the elements of luxury, but there must be affordable prices and more emphasis on price/performance. These should be a luxury route, such a situation. In such a case, its consumer base is large in the country and can basically be positioned in the middle class. There are more than 100 million middle-class people in China. If we take advantage of this consumption route, the corresponding product supply quality level and cost-effectiveness can meet the needs of the middle class, this market is very impressive. Now some brands are taking the route of luxury.
custom made. This is also the more popular in our industry, the so-called scale customization. The concept of consumers began to improve, and began to use the Internet, big data, and network means to obtain clothing or corresponding products that can meet his individual needs and quickly obtain personalized needs. Customization used to be a kind of consumption of the nobility. Now it can become a popular consumption through large-scale customization, which has become a fashion in the clothing industry.
Intangible, intangible cultural heritage, this is the cultural heritage left by our ancestors. The intangible cultural heritage of textiles is very rich. There are 13 national-level and 3 world-class textiles, dyeing, weaving, embroidering and printing. These traditional techniques can be very well integrated with modern design, brand and channel. To enhance the inheritance of textile intangible cultural heritage, so that these traditional cultural elements can become economic factors, and can become a resource for our lifestyle improvement. This is also an area that consumers are more concerned about and more concerned.
The last is the scene and experience. This is a more popular concept. Generally speaking, in the circulation link, the retail link creates some scenarios, which make consumers and services and products have a sticky effect, so that they can actually consume and purchase.
This is some of the key words we have summarized from the perspective of consumption upgrades. We also hope that you can analyze and mine these aspects.
Let's talk about the channel below. The current channel mainly refers to the traditional channel, which is the physical channel, and the second is the network channel, which is called online and offline. Now there seems to be some friction and contradiction between the two channels in the mutual coordination relationship. The decline in physical channel sales is, in a way, actually a conversion of channels, and some shares are taken online. This has caused some entities' channel operations to be sluggish or even closed.
Now we have to pursue a kind of synergy. They are actually extensions of the manufacturing industry. They are all part of the real economy. They should be mutually beneficial, work together and develop together to contribute to the development of the real economy. For example, some Japanese Uniqlo online purchases under the line, it coordinates the relationship, we can also think of some tricks, do not make it a kind of opposition, let them work together, develop together, can be an entity The economy contributes.
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