[S] to see the King: Night disk and No. 3 April the main trader strategy!
[Wang's watch period]: Crude oil fell slightly, focusing on empty orders !
On April 2, China imposed a tariff on the list of US import concessions for the first batch of suspension of concessions. China's official manufacturing PMI of 51.5 in March was higher than the glory line for 20 consecutive months. EIA raised US crude oil production in January by 6,000 barrels per day to 9.964 million barrels per day. The US crude oil production in December last year was revised to 9000 barrels per day to 9.958 million barrels per day. Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia: OPEC and Russia discuss a 10- to 10-year limited production agreement. As of the week of March 30, the number of active oil drilling in the United States decreased by 6 to 798, and fell again after two weeks. In the fundamentals, OPEC and Russia are reaching a long-term agreement on oil production restrictions, which may extend the oil supply restrictions of the world's major exporting countries for many years. The US oil rig has been reduced for the first time in three weeks. According to data released by General Electric's oilfield service agency Baker Hughes, the number of US online drilling wells was 797 in the week ending March 29, a decrease of 4 from the previous week and an increase of 135 from the same period last year. The managed fund’s net long position in Brent crude futures and options increased by 4.95%. According to data reported by OPEC members to the OPEC Secretariat, the daily output of Saudi Arabian crude oil in February 2018 was 9.935 million barrels, down by 48,000 barrels per day from January; the daily output of crude oil in Venezuela was 1.586 million barrels, down by 183,000 barrels; Algerian crude oil The daily output was 1.036 million barrels, an increase of 23,000 barrels; the daily output of UAE crude oil was 2.797 million barrels, a decrease of 53,000 barrels.
[Operational strategy]: Crude oil 1809 contract fell slightly on Monday, the daily line closed to Xiaoyin, the disk analysis of crude oil futures after the pressure on the pressure gradually lowered, in the global capital market downturn and the Sino-US trade war plus the cloud, crude oil futures It is expected to open a large round of declines. The night and the Tuesday's suggestion that the crude oil futures rebounded to a high point short, crude oil futures will continue to remain weak under the weight of the bears, you can try to start the layout of the band short.
[Wang's watch period]: The threaded hot-rolled iron ore will fall back, and the low point can continue to do more !
Fundamental: (1) Spot market: 20mm HRB400 rebar Shanghai offer 3570 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton; Guangzhou offer 3910 yuan / ton, flat; Beijing offer 3690 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton; Fuzhou offer 3650 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton. (2) Steel mill price adjustment: On March 30, Shandong Wuyuan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. adjusted the price of construction steel. The specific adjustments are as follows: the rebar price is raised by RMB 20/ton, and the current HRB400Ф18-22mm specification is worth RMB 3,590/ton. 12mm price increase 180 yuan / ton, 14mm price increase 120 yuan / ton, 16mm price increase 70 yuan / ton, 25mm price increase 50 yuan / ton; the above adjustments are tax-included. (3) News: According to the relevant departments of Bengbu City: From April 1st to November 15th, 2018, Bengbu City will carry out non-heating season peak production control measures within the city. The management of industry enterprises will reduce the total amount of pollutants discharged by industrial enterprises during the period of control, strengthen the exhaust gas treatment of heavy-duty trucks and the normalization of motor vehicles, and achieve the goal of continuous improvement of air quality.
[Operational strategy]: Threaded steel ore hot roll rushed back into the consolidation market, the daily line with the long shadow line of the small Yinxian, the disk surface analysis of this position thread iron ore long is still strong, the night plate and Tuesday Wang recommended thread iron ore After the short-term operation, the intraday market will be able to buy more than one, and after the high, it will stop the profit in time, prevent the profit from being swallowed, and the black is still adjusting, short-term participation, and timely take profit.
[Wang's watch period]: coking coal coke p v small flip , low points continue to do more !
Spot market: Tangshan coking coal (A11S1V27G85Y18) ex-factory price reported 1570 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Jingtang port coking coal (A8S0.9V25G85) reported 1790 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Australia's main coking coal (A9S0.4V26G87Y15) reported 1710 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.
The first-grade metallurgical coke Tianjin Port 600717, the stock price of 2025 yuan / ton (closing price including tax), down 50 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. The quasi-first-level metallurgical coke Tianjin Port offers 1925 yuan / ton (closing price including tax), down 50 yuan / ton from the previous trading day; Tangshan quasi-level metallurgical coke quoted 1870 yuan / ton (to the factory tax-included price), Compared with the previous trading day, the second-grade metallurgical Jiao Tangshan offer 1785 yuan / ton (to the factory tax-included price), unchanged from the previous trading day. Market News: 1. In order to thoroughly implement the "Notice of the Office of the Security Council of the State Council on Launching a Special Action to Crack down on Laws and Remedying Coal Mine Safety Production Violations and Regulations" (Anwei Office [2018] No. 5), Shanxi Provincial Government Security Committee With the goal of curbing the serious accidents in coal mines, the coal mining enterprises are urged to strictly implement the main responsibility of safety production, and to effectively eliminate the hidden dangers of accidents. From March 2018 to December, the province's coal mine special operations will be carried out. 2. From April 1st, 2018 to November 15th, Bengbu City will carry out the production control measures for the non-heating season in the whole city, and increase the control of enterprises in key industries to reduce the pollution of industrial enterprises during the period of control. The total amount of emissions, strengthening the tail gas treatment of heavy-duty trucks and the normalization of motor vehicles and other measures to achieve the goal of continuous improvement of air quality.
[Operational strategy]: Coke coking coal fell weakly after Monday's surge, and the daily line closed with a small Yinxian line with a long shadow. Yesterday mentioned "night and next Monday, the king recommended double-focus to maintain a long-term thinking, the intraday fall can continue to participate in more than one, do not rule out the emergence of another big rise" trend again once again fulfilled, the night and Tuesday the king recommended double-focus empty single do not chase Waiting for opportunities to lag behind, and still treat them with a bullish mind on Tuesday.
See King of []: aluminum, zinc-nickel Copper collective rebound, the pressure will drop!
China’s Ministry of Finance website announced that in order to balance the losses caused by the United States’ tariffs on imported steel and aluminum products (ie, 232 measures), the State Council’s Customs Tariff Commission decided to suspend tariff reductions on some imported goods originating in the United States. Obligation, implemented from April 2, pays attention to the market reaction to the Sino-US trade war and emotional changes. The LME copper 3 contract closed at $6740.50/ton, up $73.5/ton. Trade war worries have eased, and the market hopes to compromise through negotiations, but investors are still worried about economic growth and the slowdown in demand for non-ferrous metals. Recently, the Philippine Mining Council has postponed the deadline for 26 re-examinations of mines that were ordered to close or suspend mines last year. The global nickel ore market supply still has significant variables. With the advent of the policy period after the two sessions and the arrival of the traditional industrial season in the second quarter, we will pay attention to the dynamic impact of the industrial policy.
[Operational strategy]: Copper, aluminum, zinc and nickel collectively rebounded on Monday, and the colored plates collectively rose. The last time mentioned that “the strong market will continue to be seen on the disk, and the short-term will continue to rise after the opening of the night and next Mondayâ€. As expected, the disk surface analysis of this position of the colored plate continues to rise kinetic energy, night and Tuesday will be weakly under the pressure of the top, the king suggested that the colored plate short-term participation, is expected to go out of the weak trend.
Rubber is still trapped in the whole market, more than a single chase, rallies short and short !
In terms of news: 1. The 16-year state-owned whole milk price in the Shanghai market is 10400-10500 (0/0) yuan/ton; the Vietnam 3L price is 10600(0) yuan/ton; the Thai 3rd tobacco sheet is 13200 (+100) yuan/ton. . Thailand's Hat Yai raw materials market film 45.6 (+0.05) baht / kg; Thai three tobacco tablets 48.69 (+0.32) baht / kg; field glue 44 (0) baht / kg; cup rubber 34.5 (0) baht / kg. Synthetic rubber: The market price of benzene rubber 1502 in Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. in East China is 11700(0) yuan/ton; the market price of butadiene rubber is 11500(-100) yuan/ton. According to foreign media sources, German horse brand tires are predicted to be affected by the price trend of oil prices, natural rubber and synthetic rubber. German horse brand tires pointed out that some synthetic rubber is likely to increase prices again. The company said it could not pass on all cost pressures to its customers, which could result in a company's revenue reduction of $123 million to $246 million. Last year, the average price of natural rubber TSR20 rose by 20% in dollar terms and by 18% in euros. In 2017, the average price of butadiene, the main raw material for synthetic rubber, rose by more than 30% year-on-year, in dollar terms and in euros.
[Operational strategy]: Rubber 18 09 contract rebounded slightly after the bottom of the day , the daily line closed the small Yinxian, the disk analysis rubber this position is still weak overall, the upper short moving average line is obvious, the night and Tuesday Wang recommended rubber 09 contract rebound short thinking In the intraday rebound, more than one can not chase, you can lay out a high position, with a weak back, even if the profit is out, the intraday highs fall back .
[Wang's watch period]: Plastic pp , pvc rebounded high and continued to empty !
News: North China linear market turnover 9180-9300, East China market turnover 9120-9500, futures pulled up East China North China price upside down, Zhongtian Hechuang high-voltage device parking, market transactions are still acceptable, the factory accepts the current price is acceptable, Shenhua bidding The transaction resumed at a high level, and the amount of goods released gradually increased. The transaction in North China was weaker than that in East China. The import goods were generally sold, and the price had no advantage over the internal market. [Spot market] 7042 ex-factory price: Qilu Petrochemical North China 9350, Yangzi Petrochemical East China 9400, Guangzhou Petrochemical South China 9350, Lanzhou Petrochemical Southwest 9350, Daqing Petrochemical Northeast 9300; T30S ex-factory price: Tianjin United North China 8650, Zhenhai Refining Huadong 8750, Daqing Lian Huanan 8750, Lanhua Southwest 8700. The upstream is weak, and the LLDPE/PP cost support is insufficient. The overall supply of the market is relatively abundant, petrochemical inventories, social inventories, and port inventories continue to be high, and the short-term growth of downstream demand is weak, and the contradiction between supply and demand continues to be exerted.
[Operational strategy]: Plastic PP rose slightly on Monday. After last week's shock, it rebounded continuously. On the disk, the upper 40-day moving average pressure is still heavier. The king analyzed that although plastic PP has rebounded, it has not changed its short position. This wave rebounds. It is difficult to continue, and it is predicted that the night plate and Tuesday will fall back again. The king suggested that the operation wait for the rebound after the end of the rebound.
PTA rebounded slightly, and the high point continued to be short !
News: In April, Jiaxing Phase II, Yisheng Dalian, Chongqing Pengwei and Hanbang Petrochemical and other sets of equipment have maintenance requirements, PTA supply will be reduced, the current polyester maintenance equipment starts to increase, and the increase in demand is conducive to inventory digestion. The reverse volatility of crude oil and PTA spot market squeezed the profit margin of the intermediate link, and the expansion of downstream polyester profit margin increased the margin of safety of PTA. From the perspective of supply and demand, PTA's current supply is at its peak during the year. Later, as the installation enters the inspection season and the release of new polyester capacity continues to drive demand, PTA is expected to enter the gradual destocking cycle from April to June. This week, the CCF meeting will be held soon, and the PTA factory such as Yisheng may release a heavy price signal during the meeting. At the same time, given the shrinking position of the PTA1805 contract compared with the historical period, the contract is more sensitive to the spot price. In the context of the PTA factory starting to overhaul in April and the feedback of the feedback terminal demand, the time node of the PTA factory is gradually increasing. Coming, this will be the price of Lido PTA spot and near-month contract.
[Operational strategy]: Pta oscillated upward on Monday. On the face of the disk, pta fluctuated in the early period, and it was difficult to stabilize. After stabilizing on Friday, it tried to counterattack. At the beginning of this week, it was again tested. The king analyzed that the pta was weak overall. Today's market broke through to the present day. Above the line, there was some gain, and the top was again under pressure. It is predicted that the rebound will be difficult to continue. The night plate and Tuesday will also be under pressure, and the operation will rebound after the end of the rebound.
Methanol asphalt rebound pressure will fall back !
In terms of news: the price of Huadong port market fluctuated within a narrow range of futures. The Jiangsu port Taicang methanol part of the offer / negotiation is near 2880-2900 yuan / ton, Nantong part of the offer 3030 yuan / ton, Changzhou, Jiangyin port import offer at 2900-2920 Near yuan/ton, the regional price is up, the merchants follow the futures quotation, the olefin plant purchase is still acceptable; the mainstream shipments of Shijiazhuang and surrounding enterprises are around 2670-2700 yuan/ton, and the Tangshan area is around 2700 yuan/ton. The downstream factories have replenishment demand, and the recent trend follows the futures disk; the retail price in Lunan is around 2670-2690 yuan/ton, and the traditional downstream is mainly based on consumption inventory. The market mentality is temporarily stable, and occasionally small orders are needed. The northern part of Inner Mongolia has a current exchange rate of 2,500 yuan/ton, and the southern line has a current exchange rate of 2,500 yuan/ton. The main production area is affected by traffic control, and the shipment is poor. Some enterprises have accumulated inventories, and the market purchase in the region is weak. The inventory pressure in the Guanzhong area is not large. Merchants have the intention to increase their prices, and the short-term market supply is scarce, but the downstream demand is seasonally declining. Asphalt [spot market] The mainstream trading range of the domestic market: Northeast 2600-2650, North China 2650-2700, Shandong 2600-2730, Northwest 3200-4100, South China 2650-2750, East China 2650-2730, Southwest 3000-3100. Imported heavy CFR duty-paid price transaction range: South China 2770-2930, East China 2730-2970, North 2730-2970.
[Operational strategy]: Asphalt methanol fell back on Monday, and the king focused on the empty single intervention. Today, the market is perfectly matched. On the disk, the asphalt methanol has recently oscillated. There is resistance at the current position, there is support underneath, and the range is fluctuating in the short term. The market will continue, and it is predicted that today's night and Tuesday will rise again, and the operation will wait for the rebound after the end of the rebound.
Beans and leeks are strong and full, buy more on the bargain !
[Soybean meal spot price] Today, the domestic soybean meal spot market continues to rise, the northern nine-three rose 80 yuan, coastal increase of 10-50 yuan / ton. Among them, Shandong Qingdao oil plant soybean meal price: 43% protein: 3220 yuan / ton; up 20 yuan / ton. Tianjin area market oil plant soybean meal price: 43% protein: 3330 yuan / ton; up 80 yuan / ton. Guangdong Dongguan oil plant soybean meal price: 43% protein: 3240 yuan; up 40 yuan. The price of soybean oil from foreign oil companies in Fangchenggang, Guangxi: 43% protein: 3260 yuan / ton; up 40 yuan / ton. The price of soybean meal in Zhoukou area oil: 43% protein: 3310 yuan / ton; up 10 yuan / ton. [Market analysis] The soybean planting report released by the US Department of Agriculture unexpectedly lowered the planting area on Thursday. Soybean futures prices jumped, and the US market closed on Friday. On April 1, the State Council Tariff Commission decided to import US imports from April 2. The 128 products were officially imposed with tariffs. After a week or so, the Chinese side officially gave a response. The trade war between the two sides can be officially opened. In view of concerns about the supply in the market, today's electronic soybeans and domestic soybean meal have risen, soybean meal stocks have continued to rise, and the Jiu San factory has risen again by 80 yuan. The coastal area is expected to rise by 30-50 yuan, or higher on Friday. Today's slightly reduced gains, the specific situation needs to pay more attention to the quotation. Despite the unexpectedly large profits from the US soybean planting report, the addition of China’s formal implementation of additional tariffs on certain US origins will further stimulate the domestic soybean meal market.
[Operational strategy]: Beans and leeks rushed up sharply on Friday night, and fell back at the beginning of this week. The market is on schedule. On the face of the market, the two sides have strengthened in the short term, and the recent gains have been large. Today, there has been another gain. The current space has been opened. The high-level shock pattern will remain in the short term. The king will continue to rise and fall on the night and Tuesday. Go low.
How big is the soybean oil palm oil !
1. The Sino-US trade friction provoked by the Trump administration has caused deep concern in the US soybean market: The US Soybean Export Council (USSoybean Export Council) stated in a newly released report that if China responds to US tariffs with tariffs, US soybean exports to China are likely to plummet 71%. 2. The latest Counsellor's Report released by the US Department of Agriculture's Overseas Agriculture Bureau showed that the production of Korean soybean oil in 2018/19 was 190,000 tons, which was the same as the previous year. Soybean oil imports are expected to be 310,000 tons, of which 160,000 tons will come from the United States. Domestic consumption of Korean soybean oil is expected to stabilize at 490,000 tons. Counselors said that palm oil imports will increase to meet the needs of the domestic biodiesel industry, as South Korea increased its blending rate from 2.5% to 3%.
[Operational strategy]: Soybean oil palm oil rose sharply on Monday. On the face of the disk, the high level of oil in the early period of the oil continued to weaken and oscillated. At the beginning of this week, the attack was sharply attacked. The internal members of the king focused on the profit of the oil. The king analyzed that the oil rose today. Larger, today's night and Tuesday will fall back, and the operation will wait for the return after the end of the fall.
[Kings look at the period]: Cotton waiting to rebound short!
According to the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Announcement on the Relevant Arrangements for the National Reserve Cotton Rotation", the formula for calculating the reserve price of reserve cotton rotation, the 2017/2018 reserve cotton round out the standard price of the market on March 26-30 is 15013 yuan. / ton, down by 108 yuan / ton from last week. Due to the reduction in value-added tax, the reserve price of reserve cotton this week fell to 14,922 yuan / ton, down 91 yuan / ton from the previous week. The reserve rate of reserve cotton has continued to fall recently and has fallen below 50% last Friday. This has a strong pressure on cotton prices.
[Operational strategy]: After the cotton rushed high on Monday, it fell again. The king’s internal group has a high level of focus, and today’s empty singles have won a total victory. On the plate, cotton slammed low after the bottom of the week. The space below the current position is limited, and it is easy to rise and fall. With the recent cotton bullishness, it is not dominant. The upside lacks sufficient support. It is predicted that the recent market will be repeated. The king predicts the night. The disk and Tuesday will also fall back, and the operation waits for a rebound and then intervenes in a short space.
White sugar is under pressure and will fall weakly !
In the international market, the sugarcane industry organization Unica reported that in the first half of March, Brazil's central and southern Brazil crushed 3.34 million tons of sugar cane, an increase of 1.68% year-on-year; the sugar mills in central and southern Brazil began to squeeze, resulting in a substantial increase in sugar production in the first half of March. Overlaying the oversupply of Thailand and India, it is expected that ICE sugar will continue to be weak. In the domestic sugar market, the spot price of the production area was lowered once, but the price of the production area was increased. In terms of crushing, it is estimated that 53 sugar factories in Guangxi will be crushed, a decrease of 43 cases. Imports: China's imports of sugar continued to be maintained in February, only 20,000 tons, lower than the 30,000 tons in January, a sharp drop of 87.4%. With the issuance of import licenses, the average monthly issuance is around 180,000 tons, and it is expected that the amount of imported sugar will pick up later. Plus the recent smuggling of sugar on the road is worrying. On the whole, the external disk has no good support, the domestic sugar price demand is still in the off-season, and in the case of high social inventory, Zheng sugar is difficult to stabilize. The late sugar price is mainly influenced by the national policy and the weather in the producing area will become the dominant factor.
Operation strategy]: White sugar opened higher on Monday, and the small Yangxian line on the daily line reported the last time. “The overall weakness of white sugar has not changed. The king suggested that the sugar plate should maintain a short-term idea at night and next Monday. The “single†trend was as scheduled, and the night and the Tuesday’s king suggested that the sugar continue to operate with a short-term idea. The rebound is an opportunity for an empty single entry, and the intraday weak trend.
(Editor: Wu Xiaolin HF106)
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